Martingale

Martingale intuition

Martingale intuition
  1. What is a martingale intuitively?
  2. Why are martingales useful?
  3. What is a martingale process?
  4. Is martingale a Markov?

What is a martingale intuitively?

Intuitively a martingale means that, on average, the expected value of your cumulative stochastic process stays the same, no matter how many coin tosses in the future.

Why are martingales useful?

A martingale is a piece of equestrian tack designed to control a horse's head carriage and act as an additional form of control besides, for example, the bit. It prevents a horse from throwing its head so high that the rider gets hit in the face by the horse's poll or upper neck.

What is a martingale process?

The Martingale strategy involves doubling up on losing bets and reducing winning bets by half. It essentially a strategy that promotes a loss-averse mentality that tries to improve the odds of breaking even, but also increases the chances of severe and quick losses.

Is martingale a Markov?

A martingale is a special kind of Markov process. As you appear to understand the distribution function of the future of a Markov process is dependent only on the current state, and independent of previous states.

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